Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here.
Germany’s economy shrank in the second quarter, ramping up pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel to unleash fiscal stimulus as manufacturers reel from a U.S.-China trade war.
The latest report, paired with a protracted slump in business expectations, raises the risk that Europe’s largest economy is on the verge of falling into a recession. It would be the first in six and a half years. Separate data showed euro-area industrial production plunged the most in more than three years in June, while economic growth cooled to 0.2% in the second quarter.
German output fell 0.1% in the three months as exports slumped, a second contraction in four quarters. Merkel said Tuesday the country was heading into a “difficult phase” and even hinted her reluctance to respond is softening.
Economists’ reactions to the German data resemble different shades of gloom.
“We expect a period of protracted underperformance,” said Markus Guetschow, an economist at Morgan Stanley & Co. in London. Robert Greil, chief strategist at Merck Finck Privatbankiers said the second-quarter contraction “is not a drama but a warning shot.”
Germany’s performance is weighing heavily on a region struggling to sustain momentum. While the Dutch economy managed to maintain its pace of expansion, growth slowed in the largest euro-area countries. Profit warnings from across the bloc suggest little sign of a turnaround.
“The sick man needs its medicine,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets said. “Hence, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will have to unleash a new fiscal stimulus package for her country to combat the effects of U.S.-China trade war. This may just do some of the trick for the euro-zone’s economy.”
Henkel AG summed up Germany’s woes in a profit warning on Tuesday. The industrial firm is facing pressure on two fronts, a slowdown in the auto industry and weaker demand in China, the same environment that’s crippled manufacturing across the country.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday delayed the imposition of some new tariffs on Beijing by three months to December. However, there was further bad news from China, the world’s second-largest economy, on Wednesday, with cooling retail sales and the slowest growth in industrial output since 2002.